Will Prediction Markets Be The Breakout Feature For web3 Games?

Gaming is an obvious use-case for blockchain, and it will likely be one of the main drivers of mass adoption. However, there is still a ton of skepticism about intigrating blockchains with games, even from within the industry. Much of this is because there was a hype cycle in web3 gaming a few years back that didn't live up to everyone’s expectations, with many popular titles failing to retain users or maintain their economies.

This was just a few first movers though. The industry has continued to grow, and the actual blockchain integrations are becoming much more intentional. It was not uncommon for teams to simply launch a token with their game and hope for the best, without much thought about the utility of the token, but plenty of lessons were learned in the early days of crypto gaming.

It’s also important to remember that there is a lot more potential in web3 gaming than just adding tokens and NFTs to games, especially when you start to get into fully onchain gaming. With high-speed blockchains like Somnia, it is now possible to put games entirely onchain, including all of the game logic and metadata. This can unlock a variety of new use-cases, but one in particular will likely be the first breakout feature for web3.

That use case is gaming prediction markets.

We’ve already seen the appetite for on-chain predictions with the rapid rise of Polymarket. The platform processed over $15.2 billion across 114 million trades, including $1.13 billion in May 2025 alone. Most of that volume came from political and macroeconomic speculation, but it proves that there is a massive demand for these types of applications. Now imagine combining that model with the multi-billion dollar gaming industry where there is a massive built-in audience.

Gaming prediction markets create entirely new engagement models for players and viewers, especially for live-streamed content. Games already drive huge traffic on Twitch and YouTube, but there are very few opportunities for audience participation outside of live chatting. With gaming prediction markets, a viewer watching a battle royale tournament can wager on the next player to be eliminated, or how many kills a specific streamer will carry out in the next five minutes.

Sparkball has already announced that they will be incorporating these features in future updates.

Esports is another obvious fit, given the popularity of betting on traditional sports. But the opportunity isn’t just for spectators. Players themselves can create markets around their performance, or a speedrunner might let fans bet on whether they’ll beat a personal best. These interactions don’t require traditional betting licenses or third-party platforms. They can be permissionless, programmable, and tied to the actual data coming from gameplay itself.

All of this is made possible by Somnia’s infrastructure. Specifically, a new project called Gamers L.A.B. which creates onchain records of everything from kills and assists to win conditions and in-game decisions. That data is accessible by API, allowing developers to integrate it into prediction markets or anything else they build and games can plug in with standard tools like Steam or Epic logins.

This kind of composable gameplay data makes new business models possible. Prediction markets are just one example of what’s possible when you bring games fully onchain.

There’s been a lot of talk over the years about how to “bring the next million gamers to web3.” Most of those efforts focused on collectibles, tokens, or early attempts at play-to-earn. But what if the real catalyst ends up being an entirely new use-case, like the example of gaming prediction markets.